For analysts of the banking establishment, in the absence of external demand, the GDP should only grow by 6% in 2021 and will not catch up with the level of activity before containment.
After a recession of -8.4% this year, the Banque de France estimates that the stimulus plans and support measures will allow growth to rebound to + 7.4% in 2021. A view contested by economists of ING Julien Manceaux and Charlotte de Montpellier.
In a note, they believe that “the economic rebound seems to be largely consumed. External demand remains largely absent from the process, leaving domestic demand and its possible stimuli to itself. In this context, the recently announced stimulus plan should contributed to reaching the 6% rebound for 2021. In our opinion, it is still too early to expect a stronger rebound.
Such a rebound will therefore not catch up with the level of GDP before containment, they add.
The OECD also expects a much lower recovery
ING analysts are worried first about consumer spending, which “surveys indicate a further decline”, and a recovery in foreign trade “difficult”.
“The stimulus plan is very ambitious but poses several questions, especially to French consumers who do not see a direct boost,” reads the note.
Regarding exports, if the recovery is real, it “nevertheless comes up against three obstacles to go further: the weakness of Chinese domestic demand, global trade tensions and Brexit”.
“The return to pre-crisis activity will therefore take some time and will not take place until 2022”, estimates ING.
This pessimism is in any case shared by the OECD economists who in their latest projections expect growth of + 5.8% next year …